Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.83%) and 2-0 (5.34%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.