Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 45.42%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.79%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.