SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leyton Orient win with a probability of 49.4%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 25.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leyton Orient win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leyton Orient would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leyton Orient | Draw | Newport County |
49.4% ( -3.06) | 25.31% ( 0.3) | 25.28% ( 2.75) |
| Both teams to score 51.16% ( 2.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.28% ( 1.21) | 51.71% ( -1.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.5% ( 1.04) | 73.49% ( -1.04) |
| Leyton Orient Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.05% ( -0.79) | 20.95% ( 0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.3% ( -1.25) | 53.69% ( 1.25) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.72% ( 3.17) | 35.28% ( -3.18) |
