EFL Cup | Third Round

Sep 23, 2020 at 7pm UK

The Den

Millwall
0 - 2
Burnley

FT(HT: 0-1)

Brownhill (45'), Vydra (90+3')
Brownhill (53'), Thomas (56'), Westwood (78')

Gary Rowett: Troy Parrott injury "does not look great"

Sean Dyche: 'Burnley closing in on Dale Stephens deal'

The Match

Match Report

Clarets forward Jay Rodriguez suffered an ankle injury early on at the Den.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's EFL Cup third-round tie between Millwall and Burnley, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Burnley win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.

Result
Millwall	Draw	Burnley
43.87%	25.84%	30.28%

Both teams to score 53.07%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.08%

50.92%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.2%

72.8%

Millwall Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.89%

23.11%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.03%

56.97%

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.02%

30.98%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.72%

67.28%

Score Analysis

Millwall 43.87%

Burnley 30.28%

Draw 25.85%

Millwall	Draw	Burnley
1-0 @ 10.48% 2-1 @ 9% 2-0 @ 7.68% 3-1 @ 4.4% 3-0 @ 3.75% 3-2 @ 2.58% 4-1 @ 1.61% 4-0 @ 1.37% 4-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.06% Total : 43.87%	1-1 @ 12.29% 0-0 @ 7.16% 2-2 @ 5.28% 3-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.85%	0-1 @ 8.39% 1-2 @ 7.2% 0-2 @ 4.92% 1-3 @ 2.81% 2-3 @ 2.06% 0-3 @ 1.92% Other @ 2.98% Total : 30.28%