Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 32.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
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