Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 32.85% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Bristol Rovers win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
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