SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 72.37%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Newcastle United Under-21s had a probability of 12.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.32%) and 3-1 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.5%), while for a Newcastle United Under-21s win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wrexham | Draw | Newcastle United Under-21s |
72.37% ( -0.11) | 15.36% ( 0.36) | 12.27% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 61.44% ( -2.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.23% ( -2.66) | 26.77% ( 2.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.8% ( -3.45) | 47.2% ( 3.45) |
| Wrexham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.52% ( -0.63) | 6.47% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 75.8% ( -1.74) | 24.2% ( 1.74) |
| Newcastle United Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.7% ( -2.34) | 34.3% ( 2.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29% ( -2.58) | 71% ( 2.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wrexham | Draw | Newcastle United Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.31) 2-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.79)3-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.46)1-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.77)4-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.21)4-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.29)5-1 @ 3.04% ( -0.23)4-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.32)5-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.24)6-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.16)6-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.06)4-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.19)Other @ 4.02% Total : 72.37% | 1-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.45) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.14)0-0 @ 2.22% ( 0.35)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.32% Total : 15.36% | 1-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.24)2-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.2% Total : 12.27% |
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