SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-21s win with a probability of 75.18%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 10.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.79%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Newcastle United Under-21s |
10.79% ( 0.27) | 14.03% ( 0.21) | 75.18% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 61.93% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.93% ( -0.26) | 24.07% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 56.31% ( -0.35) | 43.69% ( 0.35) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.47% ( 0.24) | 34.53% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.75% ( 0.25) | 71.25% ( -0.25) |
| Newcastle United Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.6% ( -0.13) | 5.4% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.84% ( -0.39) | 21.16% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Newcastle United Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 3.08% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 1.98% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.09% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.03)Other @ 2% Total : 10.79% | 1-1 @ 5.79% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.34% Total : 14.03% | 1-2 @ 8.45% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 8.22% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 7.73% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 6% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 5.64% ( -0.09)0-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 4.37% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 3.5% ( -0.06)0-5 @ 3.29% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 3.19% ( -0.01)2-5 @ 1.86% ( -0.02)1-6 @ 1.7% ( -0.05)0-6 @ 1.6% ( -0.05)3-4 @ 1.13% ( 0)2-6 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.22% Total : 75.18% |
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