Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 75.73%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 10.11%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-3 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.17%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 2-1 (2.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
