It is hard to see past anything other than an AZ Alkmaar victory in this particular match, with the squad being far stronger and the club having a lot more momentum.
Fortuna Sittard might have the home advantage here, but the number of goals they are leaking in throughout the season will continue to plague them here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 52.86%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 23.35%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.73%) and 0-2 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-0 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
