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Eredivisie | Gameweek 15
Dec 18, 2021 at 7pm UK
AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
WI

AZ
4 - 1
Willem II

de Wit (9'), Wellenreuther (76' og.), Gudmundsson (86', 89')
Clasie (62'), Pavlidis (80')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Kabangu (36')
Saddiki (31')
Michelis (75')

We said: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Willem II

After a slow start to the season, AZ Alkmaar have hit their stride in recent weeks and will be aiming to keep the juggernaut rolling and move into the European qualification places. Given the gulf in class and quality between the two sides, we predict they will claim all three points against a floundering Willem II side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 81.63%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 6.01%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.8%) and 1-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.88%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (2.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawWillem II
81.63%12.36%6.01%
Both teams to score 43.81%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.77%34.23%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.87%56.13%
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.65%6.35%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
76.15%23.86%
Willem II Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.77%53.23%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.21%86.79%
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 81.61%
    Willem II 6.01%
    Draw 12.36%
AZ AlkmaarDrawWillem II
2-0 @ 12.84%
3-0 @ 11.8%
1-0 @ 9.32%
4-0 @ 8.14%
2-1 @ 8.1%
3-1 @ 7.45%
4-1 @ 5.13%
5-0 @ 4.49%
5-1 @ 2.83%
3-2 @ 2.35%
6-0 @ 2.06%
4-2 @ 1.62%
6-1 @ 1.3%
Other @ 4.18%
Total : 81.61%
1-1 @ 5.88%
0-0 @ 3.38%
2-2 @ 2.55%
Other @ 0.55%
Total : 12.36%
0-1 @ 2.13%
1-2 @ 1.85%
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 6.01%

Read more!
Read more!


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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