Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 47.82%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 28.22% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
