SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 53.34%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 23.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Groningen win was 0-1 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | Groningen |
53.34% ( -0.25) | 23.19% ( 0.05) | 23.46% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 55.95% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.54% ( -0.04) | 44.45% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.17% ( -0.03) | 66.82% ( 0.03) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.37% ( -0.1) | 16.62% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.54% ( -0.18) | 46.45% ( 0.18) |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.11% ( 0.15) | 32.89% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.53% ( 0.17) | 69.46% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | Groningen |
| 1-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.8% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.26% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.18% Total : 53.34% | 1-1 @ 10.91% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.19% | 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.42% Total : 23.46% |
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