SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 39.59%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-0 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
34.47% ( -1.04) | 25.94% ( -0.07) | 39.59% ( 1.12) |
| Both teams to score 54.21% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.9% ( 0.18) | 50.1% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.93% ( 0.16) | 72.07% ( -0.15) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.19% ( -0.54) | 27.81% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.6% ( -0.7) | 63.4% ( 0.71) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.1% ( 0.68) | 24.9% ( -0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.48% ( 0.94) | 59.52% ( -0.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 8.86% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 5.67% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 3.36% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 2.42% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.86% Total : 34.47% | 1-1 @ 12.32% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.93% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.94% | 0-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 8.57% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 3.97% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 3.1% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.63% Total : 39.59% |
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