Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 62.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 16.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (4.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.