Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 61.02%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 17.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.77%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-0 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
