SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Astana win with a probability of 43.76%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 30.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Astana win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Astana in this match.
| Result | ||
| Astana | Draw | Backa Topola |
43.76% ( -0.52) | 25.47% ( 0.45) | 30.77% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 54.52% ( -1.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.85% ( -1.91) | 49.15% ( 1.91) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.78% ( -1.75) | 71.22% ( 1.75) |
| Astana Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.59% ( -1.05) | 22.4% ( 1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.08% ( -1.59) | 55.92% ( 1.59) |
| Backa Topola Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.26% ( -0.91) | 29.73% ( 0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.2% ( -1.12) | 65.8% ( 1.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Astana | Draw | Backa Topola |
| 1-0 @ 9.97% ( 0.46) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.19)3-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.19)4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.24% Total : 43.76% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.51)2-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.19)3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.46% | 0-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.42) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.3% Total : 30.77% |
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