Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Zagreb win with a probability of 67.38%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Astana had a probability of 12.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Zagreb win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.68%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.44%), while for an Astana win it was 0-1 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dinamo Zagreb would win this match.
0.1) 
-0.03) 
