Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panevezys win with a probability of 36.8%. A win for Hapoel Be'er Sheva had a probability of 34.05% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panevezys win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.54%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Hapoel Be'er Sheva win was 0-1 (11.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
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