Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez win with a probability of 49.5%. A win for Hamrun Spartans had a probability of 26.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Hamrun Spartans win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
