SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 70.56%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 12.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 1-2 (3.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Qarabag FK |
70.56% ( -0.18) | 16.88% ( 0.09) | 12.56% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 55.93% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.12% ( -0.25) | 33.87% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.27% ( -0.28) | 55.72% ( 0.28) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.45% ( -0.1) | 8.55% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.43% ( -0.25) | 29.57% ( 0.25) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.15% ( -0.04) | 38.84% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.42% ( -0.04) | 75.57% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Qarabag FK |
| 2-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)6-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.1% Total : 70.56% | 1-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.19% Total : 16.88% | 1-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.42% 1-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.72% Total : 12.56% |
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