If Alonso makes changes en masse as he may be tempted to, this could be a tighter match than many expect, with Qarabag always defensively disciplined under Gurbanov's management.
They will be more confident than usual in European competitions, too, having won both of their opening games, but Leverkusen should still possess enough quality to make it three victories from three in Group H.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 52.99%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 24.55% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
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