SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 51.82%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Qarabag FK | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
25.77% ( -0.5) | 22.42% ( -0.27) | 51.82% ( 0.78) |
| Both teams to score 61.24% ( 0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.36% ( 0.84) | 38.64% ( -0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.06% ( 0.89) | 60.94% ( -0.89) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.1% ( 0.08) | 27.89% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.49% ( 0.1) | 63.51% ( -0.09) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.93% ( 0.57) | 15.07% ( -0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.41% ( 1.07) | 43.59% ( -1.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qarabag FK | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 2-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 5.37% ( -0.21)2-0 @ 3.43% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 2.76% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.66% Total : 25.77% | 1-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.17)3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.28% Total : 22.41% | 1-2 @ 9.61% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 7.53% ( -0)1-3 @ 6.06% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 4.75% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 3.87% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 2.87% ( 0.12)0-4 @ 2.25% ( 0.09)2-4 @ 1.83% ( 0.08)1-5 @ 1.09% ( 0.07)Other @ 4.01% Total : 51.82% |
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