Just weeks ago, Atalanta would be strong favourites to kill off this tie in Europe's second-tier tournament, but confidence has dipped in the camp and the perennial overachievers have lost direction since the turn of the year.
Even with some important men missing, the greater individual quality of their squad should see La Dea through against an Olympiacos side used to winning each week - but only by the narrowest of margins.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olympiacos win with a probability of 41.69%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olympiacos win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
