Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 49.9%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 22.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.46%) and 1-2 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.55%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 1-0 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.