Villarreal have made a very poor start to the season, but they have recent experience of winning the Europa League, while home advantage could also be an important factor.
Given that Rennes have made a habit of drawing games so far this season, we expect the spoils to be shared on Thursday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.06%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
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