SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Switzerland | 2 | 8 | 6 |
| 2 | Romania | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Kosovo | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Andorra | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 5 | Israel | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 6 | Belarus | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Israel win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for Belarus had a probability of 27.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Israel win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (8.66%). The likeliest Belarus win was 1-0 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Israel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belarus | Draw | Israel |
27.09% ( -2.23) | 26.12% ( -0.49) | 46.79% ( 2.72) |
| Both teams to score 50.24% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.34% ( 0.73) | 53.66% ( -0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.85% ( 0.61) | 75.15% ( -0.61) |
| Belarus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.17% ( -1.35) | 34.82% ( 1.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.44% ( -1.45) | 71.56% ( 1.45) |
| Israel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.08% ( 1.61) | 22.91% ( -1.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.32% ( 2.32) | 56.68% ( -2.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belarus | Draw | Israel |
| 1-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.57) 2-1 @ 6.54% ( -0.37)2-0 @ 4.44% ( -0.48)3-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.22)3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.23)Other @ 2.13% Total : 27.09% | 1-1 @ 12.4% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.23)2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.92% Total : 26.12% | 0-1 @ 11.75% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 9.14% ( 0.26)0-2 @ 8.66% ( 0.55)1-3 @ 4.49% ( 0.33)0-3 @ 4.25% ( 0.46)2-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.19)0-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.23)Other @ 2.91% Total : 46.78% |
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