SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Denmark | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Finland | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Denmark | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Finland | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 53.19%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 21.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.53%) and 1-2 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-3 win for Kazakhstan in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Kazakhstan.
| Result | ||
| San Marino | Draw | Kazakhstan |
21.37% ( 0.12) | 25.44% ( 0.04) | 53.19% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 46.49% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.33% ( -0) | 55.67% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.17% ( -0) | 76.82% ( 0.01) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.82% ( 0.12) | 41.18% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.29% ( 0.1) | 77.71% ( -0.1) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.04% ( -0.06) | 20.96% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.29% ( -0.1) | 53.71% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Marino | Draw | Kazakhstan |
| 1-0 @ 7.66% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.57% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.2% Total : 21.37% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.63% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.7% Total : 25.44% | 0-1 @ 13.48% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 10.53% ( -0.04)1-2 @ 9.35% ( -0)0-3 @ 5.49% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.87% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.14% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.26% Total : 53.18% |
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