SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Kazakhstan | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Denmark | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Finland | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Kazakhstan | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Denmark | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Finland | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for San Marino had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.42%) and 1-0 (5.15%). The likeliest San Marino win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Finland | Draw | San Marino |
43.93% ( -34.24) | 21.71% ( 6.29) | 34.36% ( 27.95) |
| Both teams to score 69.78% ( 34.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.16% ( 17.42) | 29.83% ( -17.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.01% ( 18.49) | 50.99% ( -18.5) |
| Finland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.5% ( -4.39) | 14.5% ( 4.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.5% ( -9.22) | 42.49% ( 9.21) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.61% ( 42.54) | 18.38% ( -42.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.48% ( 41.6) | 49.52% ( -41.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Finland | Draw | San Marino |
| 2-1 @ 8.42% ( 0.4) 3-1 @ 5.42% ( -0.7)1-0 @ 5.15% ( -8.96)2-0 @ 4.97% ( -11.2)3-2 @ 4.59% ( 3.07)3-0 @ 3.2% ( -9.15)4-1 @ 2.62% ( -0.89)4-2 @ 2.22% ( 1.35)4-0 @ 1.54% ( -5.53)4-3 @ 1.25% ( 1.11)5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.6)Other @ 3.55% Total : 43.93% | 1-1 @ 8.72% ( 1.72) 2-2 @ 7.13% ( 5.14)0-0 @ 2.66% ( -3.5)3-3 @ 2.59% ( 2.34)Other @ 0.61% Total : 21.71% | 1-2 @ 7.38% ( 5.65) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( 1.46)1-3 @ 4.17% ( 3.88)2-3 @ 4.03% ( 3.7)0-2 @ 3.82% ( 3.07)0-3 @ 2.16% ( 2.03)1-4 @ 1.77% ( 1.73)2-4 @ 1.71% ( 1.66)3-4 @ 1.1% ( 1.07)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.9)Other @ 2.81% Total : 34.36% |
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