European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 22, 2021 at 8pm UK

Croatia
3 - 1
Scotland

Vlasic (17'), Modric (62'), Perisic (77')
Lovren (26')

FT(HT: 1-1)

McGregor (42')
McKenna (34')

Steve Clarke opens up on Scotland's Euro 2020 exit

Scott McKenna pays tribute to Croatia's quality

Steve Clarke insists Scotland will recover from Euros exit

Callum McGregor admits Scotland are "shattered" by Euro 2020 exit

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Scotland win with a probability of 46.67%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Scotland win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.

Result
Croatia	Draw	Scotland
27.72%	25.61%	46.67%

Both teams to score 52.25%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.74%

51.26%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.9%

73.1%

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.95%

33.05%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.36%

69.64%

Scotland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.04%

21.96%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.75%

55.25%

Score Analysis

Croatia 27.72%

Scotland 46.67%

Draw 25.61%

Croatia	Draw	Scotland
1-0 @ 8.04% 2-1 @ 6.74% 2-0 @ 4.45% 3-1 @ 2.49% 3-2 @ 1.89% 3-0 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.48% Total : 27.72%	1-1 @ 12.18% 0-0 @ 7.26% 2-2 @ 5.11% 3-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.61%	0-1 @ 11% 1-2 @ 9.23% 0-2 @ 8.34% 1-3 @ 4.67% 0-3 @ 4.22% 2-3 @ 2.58% 1-4 @ 1.77% 0-4 @ 1.6% 2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.29% Total : 46.67%