Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Scotland win with a probability of 46.67%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Scotland win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
