Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 46.04%. A win for Finland had a probability of 29.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Finland win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.
