Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 57.59%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Horsham had a probability of 20.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%), while for a Horsham win it was 1-2 (5.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
0.1) 
-0.04) 
