SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 70.32%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Novara had a probability of 12.38%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 1-0 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.06%), while for a Novara win it was 1-2 (3.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Novara |
70.32% ( -1.35) | 17.3% ( 0.51) | 12.38% ( 0.84) |
| Both teams to score 53.64% ( 0.94) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.51% ( -0.17) | 36.49% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.37% ( -0.19) | 58.63% ( 0.2) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.73% ( -0.35) | 9.27% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.68% ( -0.85) | 31.32% ( 0.85) |
| Novara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.12% ( 1.26) | 40.88% ( -1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.55% ( 1.11) | 77.45% ( -1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Novara |
| 2-0 @ 10.71% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.1)1-0 @ 9.01% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.35)3-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.29)4-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 3.4% ( 0.1)5-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.18)5-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 0.96% ( -0)6-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.44% Total : 70.31% | 1-1 @ 8.06% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.19)0-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.15% Total : 17.3% | 1-2 @ 3.61% ( 0.21) 0-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.1)Other @ 1.52% Total : 12.38% |
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