It is always difficult to know exactly what to expect when two major clubs meet at this stage of pre-season. There will be wholesale changes throughout the match, which is almost certain to interrupt the tempo, but it should still be an entertaining contest between two quality sides, and we are expecting Real Madrid to just shade it.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 53.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for AC Milan had a probability of 23.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.77%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for an AC Milan win it was 0-1 (6.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
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