Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Besiktas win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.7% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Besiktas win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
-0.71) 
0.11) 
