Both sides will be keen to return to winning ways as they look to end the campaign on a high by securing at least a top-half finish. The visitors have struggled away from home for some time, and although they were victorious in their last visit to Koln, we feel that the hosts will do enough to claim all three points, especially if Modeste is fit to lead the line. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.

Result
FC Koln	Draw	Mainz 05
45.49%	24.22%	30.28%

Both teams to score 58.48%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.15%

43.85%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.76%

66.24%

FC Koln Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.56%

19.43%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.73%

51.27%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.59%

27.41%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.11%

62.88%

Score Analysis

FC Koln 45.49%

Mainz 05 30.28%

Draw 24.22%

FC Koln	Draw	Mainz 05
2-1 @ 9.25% 1-0 @ 8.73% 2-0 @ 7.15% 3-1 @ 5.05% 3-0 @ 3.9% 3-2 @ 3.27% 4-1 @ 2.07% 4-0 @ 1.6% 4-2 @ 1.34% Other @ 3.14% Total : 45.49%	1-1 @ 11.29% 2-2 @ 5.99% 0-0 @ 5.33% 3-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.22%	1-2 @ 7.31% 0-1 @ 6.89% 0-2 @ 4.46% 1-3 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 2.58% 0-3 @ 1.93% 1-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.94% Total : 30.28%