SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 41.34%. A win for Lens had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Lens win was 1-2 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Lens |
41.34% ( 0.15) | 24.62% ( -0.26) | 34.04% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 58.67% ( 0.95) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.71% ( 1.22) | 44.29% ( -1.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.33% ( 1.17) | 66.67% ( -1.17) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.53% ( 0.6) | 21.47% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.5% ( 0.91) | 54.5% ( -0.91) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.71% ( 0.64) | 25.29% ( -0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.94% ( 0.87) | 60.06% ( -0.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Lens |
| 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.29)2-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 3.3% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 1.74% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.57% Total : 41.34% | 1-1 @ 11.48% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.29)3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.62% | 1-2 @ 7.89% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.26)0-2 @ 5.13% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.6% Total : 34.04% |
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