SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 49.59%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 28.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.76%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 2-1 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
28.33% ( 0.01) | 22.08% ( 0) | 49.59% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 64.87% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.13% ( -0.01) | 34.87% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.15% ( -0.01) | 56.85% ( 0.01) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.84% ( 0) | 24.16% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.52% ( 0) | 58.48% ( -0) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.54% ( -0.01) | 14.46% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.57% ( -0.02) | 42.43% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 6.82% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.96% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.53% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.23% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.12% 3-0 @ 1.67% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.15% 4-2 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.76% Total : 28.33% | 1-1 @ 9.6% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.59% 0-0 @ 3.5% ( 0)3-3 @ 2.01% Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.08% | 1-2 @ 9.28% 0-1 @ 6.76% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.53% 1-3 @ 5.98% ( -0)2-3 @ 4.25% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.21% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.89% ( -0)2-4 @ 2.05% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.04% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.12% ( -0)3-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 3.51% Total : 49.59% |
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