Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 36.54%. A win for Roma had a probability of 35.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
-0.19) 
0.25) 
