Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 66.71%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 14.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.43%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.11%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.
0.36) 
-0.19) 
