Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 44.41%. A win for Bari had a probability of 28.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.02) 
