Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istiqlol Dushanbe win with a probability of 38.64%. A win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 36% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istiqlol Dushanbe win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest BATE Borisov win was 1-0 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.