Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 56.03%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Istiqlol Dushanbe had a probability of 20.98%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Istiqlol Dushanbe win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.
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