Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 64.15%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Asteras Tripolis had a probability of 13.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.33%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for an Asteras Tripolis win it was 0-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
-0.13) 
0.01) 
