Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 50.75%. A win for Mantova had a probability of 25.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Mantova win was 0-1 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
0.07) 
-0.03) 
