Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 59.67%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 18.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Nantes win it was 1-2 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
0.19) 
-0.05) 
