Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 56.82%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 21.73% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.43%) and 1-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.01) 
