Athletic will enter Saturday's contest as the favourites, but they have found victories hard to come by in recent away games, having won just one of their previous four road trips.
As a result, we think that they will have to settle for a point against a Rayo side that has lost just one of their last seven home matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 38.5%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 33.48% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (10.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
0.21) 
-0.01) 
