SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.23%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 13.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.35%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
13.13% ( 0.28) | 18.64% ( -0) | 68.23% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 51.03% ( 0.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.99% ( 0.71) | 41.01% ( -0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.6% ( 0.72) | 63.4% ( -0.72) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.34% ( 0.89) | 42.66% ( -0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.99% ( 0.75) | 79.01% ( -0.75) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89% ( 0.13) | 11% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.72% ( 0.28) | 35.28% ( -0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 4% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.07% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.42% Total : 13.13% | 1-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.69% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.98% Total : 18.64% | 0-2 @ 11.43% ( -0.25) 0-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.29)1-2 @ 9.74% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 8.41% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 7.17% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 4.64% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 3.95% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.1)0-5 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.75% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.68% ( 0.06)Other @ 4% Total : 68.22% |
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