Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for St Mirren had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest St Mirren win was 1-0 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0) 
